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Republican Senators Express Concern Over Renewall of ICANN Contracts With DoC
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these are good comments. I think the first fallacy is that launching a new registry is a race to 25 million registrations that, if one goes back and looks at the flavor of both the biz and info application projections, was something they each were banking upon happening in short order, or certainly faster than what has occurred.
This is different than saying that a great many TLD's entered into the market place will not have a material effect upon current .com market share and its overall dominance. Not that this has to happen in year 1 or year 2, or even by year 5. It is not logical to expect, in a couple of years, for one or two TLD's to overcome the vast headstart .com has had in the market place. But 150 TLD's times just 100,000 registrations each is roughly 70% of current .com market share. And, this assumes a one for one trade where, in all likelihood, a fair percentage will come from new users that have not registered in any of the existing TLD's.
It is reasonable to say that just 150 TLD's over 10 years would have quite a material effect upon .com dominance even with very conservative second level projections of 100,000 each (with varying wholesale pricing models). Even with the conservative projections calling for the number of people with Internet access to double from today to 1 billion over the next 10 years, it is unlikely that there will ever be a repeat of the .com phenomenon for obvious reasons. This has always been the fallacy (to me) but is not the same as saying that numerous TLD's - building niche purposes in the market place - would not have the same effect. That is the idea, I believe, and I do not think biz and info have disproved this.
Lastly, there is always the thought that the operators of the .com registry will continually look to improve their service offerings to retain market share and that all these other new registry operators will do the same. How many people remember the arcane process of updating name servers for a domain prior to competition at the registRAR level? Would Verisign have upgraded this service without competition? And this is really an insignificant example...we really do not know what has been artificially restrained in terms of service and innovation at the TLD addressing level. I think, if given the chance, there is far greater opportunity for market penetration than just putting together a string and turning on the lights. Only .com, for the foreseeable future, will be absolved of having to "build" a market need. This is not the same as saying that market needs do not exist, will increase to exist in the future, and that these cannot be identified and served. The only thing stopping this are restraints completely artificial in nature.
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Re: My own take
by RFassett
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Good points as usual Ray. You're in danger of being taken for granted. :) Let's look at the reality, .com registrations are dropping like they stepped into a greased mineshaft. New TLD registrations are growing despite being hobbled by ICANN's micro(mis)management. The market sees ICANN as damage and routes around it. -g
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